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Lucky
Lester here, hoping to hold true to my name this week.
The last few weeks have been a little questionable,
but my overall record remains strong, especially for
picking every game, every week. Last week Lucky went
5-8-1 bring his record for the year to 51-45-5.
This week is full of tough match-ups, big spreads,
and make it or break it games. But I'm bound to improve
my fate in a rather interesting week eight.
It's time to lay my best picks out on the line once
again so they're back...
SUPER
PICKS
Packers(-2)
@ Redskins - I've got to take Brett Favre and his
Packers for the second week in a row. Although Brett's
mind might be on his wife's health, he seems to do
best when his emotions are high. Brett is one of my
favorite players ever. His poise, his ability to have
fun on the field, to seemingly effortlessly lead a
team to victory; all these admirable qualities make
it impossible not to respect the guy. Brett is back
on his game; he has led his team to two straight easy
victories, and will continue against a Redskins team
that barely beat a Bear's team quarterbacked by Jonathan
Quinn. Clinton Portis should have a good night, and
keep his team in the game, but the Packers need to
make up for early losses at home and take a few on
the road. This game in Washington is a perfect time
to get one back. Ahman Green looked like his old self
against Dallas last week, and will test a pretty good
Redskins defense. Take the Packers and the best signal
caller for the past ten years. Game Date: 10/31/04
13:00 ET
Cardinals(+3)
@ Bills - The Cardinals did one of two things last
week. They either beat a pretty damn good Seahawks
team that is struggling, or beat a much-overrated
Seahawk team that had just been ranked too high from
the get go. Lucky's got to go for the first one. The
Cardinals have been a feisty crew all year long, and
surprisingly their defense has been stellar. Emmitt
Smith has looked pretty good, especially for a washed
up, should've retired years ago, left for dead by
the Cowboys and Bill Parcels, running back that led
his team to victory last week. I love seeing former
Cowboys do good for other teams, and this guy who
was the Star in the Dallas logo for so many years,
has me jumping for joy, no matter how much he's making
me lose (see last weeks pick). Anquan Boldin looks
like he's returning this week, but that shouldn't
matter. Buffalo is a poor team, and didn't even look
good in their only win of the season. The kicker,
well the Cardinals are getting three points. Here's
to Dennis Green and his fine return to coaching...
Cheers!
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
49ers(+1.5)
@ Bears - The Bears aren't good, not at all. They
can't be satisfied with Craig Krenzel leading their
already struggling offensive unit. Sure, Thomas Jones
has been a pleasant surprise, but I don't think he
can run for big yards against nine guys in the box.
The 49ers will play single coverage all day against
Chicago, challenging Krenzel to beat them through
the air. Although Craig would love to oblige, he just
doesn't have that ability yet. The Niners should look
to give the ball to Kevan Barlow early and often.
His numbers haven't been what they were projected
to be, but, he'll improve this week. Tim Rattay is
a much better option at quarterback, so now everything
points to the Niners. I think they are, for the first
time this year, a damn good bet.
Game Date: 10/31/04 20:35 ET
Jaguars(+1)
@ Texans - I mean, I like the Texans as much as the
next guy, probably more, since they take fans away
from the Cowboys, but (-1) against a 5-2 Jaguars team
that just beat the Colts in Indianapolis, are you
kidding me? Byron Leftwhich will continue his 300
plus yard game streak in this one, and although David
Carr will give the Texans a chance, Leftwhich will
prevail. The Jags are just a more complete team. Their
defense is tough as nails, their offense has really
come together over the last few weeks, and they're
5-2. I usually take the Texans, but not this week,
not against a team as confident as the Jaguars. Look
for running back Fred Taylor to finally break out
of his slump this week. He just had 100 plus yards
against the Colts, but I see a couple touchdowns in
his immediate future. Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00
ET
Lions(+3)
@ Cowboys - Can't hate the Boys if they're winning
me money on a weekly basis right? Wrong! These Cowboys
are making me love watching them play. Between my
new least favorite player Keyshawn Johnson's bickering
and Bill Parcels ridiculous facial expressions, I
can't figure out what I like watching more, the actual
game or the sidelines. And there's always those Cowboy
cheerleaders. The Cowboys have been just what I predicted,
a team that was very overrated, and a team that obviously
overachieved last year. You can say what you want
about the Quincy Carter incident or the Antonio Bryant
stuff, but all in all, the Cowboys aren't that good,
or even good at all. They struggle every week and
now their defense is getting picked on... oh yes,
it's all coming together quite nicely. Well, all that
said, the upstart 4-2 Lions come to town this week,
and Roy Williams will be back in his old stomping
grounds for the first time as a pro. Think he'll be
excited? I'm willing to bet on it. In fact, I might
just take the Lions to win this one. All or nothing
as I always say.
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Lucky
Lester's Picks For Week Eight
Giants
@ Vikings(-6.5) - The way I see it, if the
Vikings are favored by less than a touchdown you should
always take them against a lesser team. And the Giants
are a lesser team. Amazing Tiki Barber continued his
offensive rampage last week in a big loss to the Detroit
Lions, but it wasn't enough. Last week Kurt Warner
looked more like the guy who played behind Marc Bulger
than the guy who started this year. I'm not saying
Kurt's washed up, but he's not better than Daunte
Culpepper, and really isn't even close. The defenses
are about equal, and although the Giants have an edge
in the running game, Rookie Mewelde Moore has been
a godsend for the Vikings. This will be a close one,
high scoring and as offensive as your average Vikings
game, but take the Vikings to win by at least 7.
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Bengals(+3)
@ Titans - The Bengals showed that they are better
than the 1-4 record they had before handing it to
the Broncos last week. I'm not imagining for a second
that they are going to consistently kick the backsides
of teams like Denver every week, but the Titans are
not a team like Denver, especially with a questionable
Steve McNair. The entire Titan team seems to be on
the questionable list every week, and even if the
players do play, they're not 100%. Rudi Johnson and
Chad Johnson looked like they got the idea last week,
and I only see them continuing the show against a
banged up Tennessee squad. Carson Palmer might be
getting a little too much credit for his performance
against the Broncos, but his confidence to go at Champ
Bailey says a lot to me about his game. Take the Bengals.
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Colts(-1)
@ Chiefs - Last week I said I was betting on the Chiefs
as if they were a mirror replica of last years 13-3
team. Well, they turned out to be exactly that, if
not better against a decent Falcon team. Mike Vick
couldn't do jack against the Chiefs D which even I
couldn't have imagined. But all this said, the Chiefs
aren't the same team they were last year. They aren't
as consistent and will show that this week against
one of the most consistent players in the game, Peyton
Manning, and Edgerrin James and Marvin Harrison for
that matter. Sure, the Colts defense could challenge
the Chiefs defense to see who's more questionable,
but the Colts are just a better team. I don't like
Indianapolis being favored in this game, but one point
is one point, and in situations like this you have
to take the team you think will win the battle. Manning
will find it easy to toss touchdowns to Mr. Harrison
this weak, and win a big time game in Kansas City.
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Falcons(+6.5)
@ Denver - This games got me vexed. I don't know which
way to go; I don't even know where to begin. So, I'll
start where football starts, defense. I know the Falcons
have just recently been whipped, but they have a solid
defense. Denver also just got pummeled by a 1-4 Bengals
team, but they also have a good defense. I have to
give Denver a slight advantage here, but not as big
as people might think. Offensively both teams looked
stagnant at best, with Vick and the Falcons being
a little worse. They could only manage 10 points against
the Chiefs. But, the Broncos couldn't do anything
against the leagues worst rushing defense. I'll have
to give the Broncos another, very slight, advantage.
Now the intangibles, the little things, and the stuff
I call Swagger. Vick always has swagger, and a little
thing I like to call cushioning... also known as (+6.5).
Denver also has a large amount of close victories.
So, the intangibles have to go to the Falcons. Denver
seems to squeak out their victories for the most part,
and if they do win in Mile High, I don't see it being
by much. I always rank intangibles very high, realizing
that the mental part of the game is larger. Translation:
take the team with the points in this one.
Game Date: 10/31/04 16:05 ET
Panthers
@ Seahawks(-8) - Eight is a bunch for a team
that just went down at the hands of an Arizona team
that is feisty at best . But the Panthers really haven't
been anything greater then bottom feeders either.
For two slumping teams, the Seahawks are definitely
the better of the two. Matt Hasselbeck will actually
come to play this week, pull his head out of his backside,
and find his stellar offensive teammates for a bunch
of scores against a defense that can only imagine
what they use to be. Shaun Alexander should run for
three times the yards he had last week, and if Hasselbeck
throws half as many touchdowns as he did interceptions
against Arizona, the Hawks should win easily at home.
I'm still a strong believer in the Hawks and their
playoff and Super Bowl aspirations, but they need
to step up and blow out an injured Panther team. This,
I believe, they will do on Sunday. Game Date: 10/31/04
16:05 ET
Ravens
@ Eagles(+7.5) - It's real hard for me to take
a team favored by more than a touchdown against a
defense led by Ray Lewis. But that same defense has
to be off the field while the Baltimore offense has
the ball. That offense is anything but productive
especially with Jamal Lewis suspended for one more
game. Chester Taylor looked okay last week, but Boller
still didn't even break 100 yards... and he played
the whole game. The Eagles didn't look so dominant
either, but were still good enough to be one of the
two undefeated teams going into week 8. McNabb has
been wonderful since Terrell Owens made himself an
Eagle. Brian Westbrook is most likely out this week
as well, so it seems the odds are stacking against
an Eagle victory. But, Philadelphia will find a way
this week, and smother a lackluster Raven offense.
Game Date: 10/31/04 13:00 ET
Patriots
@ Steelers(+3) - My more sensible half tells
me to take the undefeated, 20 plus game win streaking,
best team in the league, Patriots. But, who likes
to listen to him, when a chance to call a huge upset
is on the line. Don't get me wrong, taking the Patriots
looks like a good bet. They are only favored by 3
and against a Steeler team that hasn't got the respect
they've deserved yet this year. But, mark my words;
the Steelers and rookie quarterback Ben Roethlisberger
are for real. One might think that Belichick would
have his way with the rookie, but I think this makes
the Coach's job a little tougher. Big Ben hasn't had
to many games to show the Patriots his tendencies,
and on that note, his rookie status will help Pittsburgh.
The Patriots always seem to play to the level of their
opponents and that's bound to bite them in the butt
sooner or later. I'm just betting that it happens
in week 8. I hate to listen to my crazy and cocky
side but... wait a second; I love listening to that
side, what am I thinking? I've got to take The Steel
Crew in this game, showing that New England is in
fact mortal.
Game Date: 10/31/04 16:15 ET
Raiders
@ Chargers(-6) - Drew Brees has to get some
respect from me. He has done so well and until this
point all I've been doing is taking him to fail. I
forgot he was a great field general in college, and
he's still growing as a football player. The Raiders
are terrible, and even lost to the Saints at home.
Their offense looked better last week, but whose offense
doesn't seem powerful against New Orleans? The Chargers
are doing well listening to Marty Schottenheimer.
This Monday LaDainian Tomlinson said he is as healthy
as he's felt in three weeks. So, things look good
for a decent Chargers team against a poor Raiders
team. Even with Sapp and Ted Washington, the Raiders
can't stop a running back. Keenan McCardell gives
the Chargers a much-needed boost at receiver, and
in his second week he'll be looking to hook up with
Brees for a TD or two. The underrated Chargers secondary
should put a stop to the idea that the Raiders are
an explosive offense. Game Date: 10/31/04 16:15
ET
Miami
@ Jets(-6.5) - I'll take this bet in the blink
of an eye. The Dolphins win one game and now they
aren't even 7-point underdogs in New York against
one of the best teams in football? Wow! The Jets showed
me last week that they could play with any team in
this league, especially the one-week wonder Miami
squad. Jay Fiedler isn't consistent; in fact he actually
is consistent, consistently bad! He had one decent
week and still it wasn't all that good. Coach Herm
Edwards won't let his Jets overlook the Dolphins or
get down about a loss to the Patriots last week. He'll
have them fired up and ready to improve their record.
The Jets still could walk away from this one tied
for the best record in the NFL. Give the ball to Curtis,
the Phins can't stop him.
Game Date: 11/01/04 21:05 ET
WAGERING
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Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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