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Lucky
went 7-7 last week with his picks in as chaotic
an NFL season as I have ever seen. My record for the
year so far is 62-60-5. This week is winning
time and I plan on putting up big numbers to set the
proper trend for the second half of the season.
Lucky
Lester's Picks
Baltimore(-1.5)
@ Jets - The Ravens have looked solid in recent losses
and wins. Jamal Lewis is back, showing his importance
last week by scoring a decisive touchdown in the 4th.
Chad Pennington is out for at least one week. That
doesn't make life easier against the toughest defense
in the land. Quincy Carter, not known for his accuracy,
will find quite the challenge ahead of him this week
against Baltimore. The Jets will rely heavily on Curtis
Martin. The Ravens will force Quincy Carter to win
the game for the Jets. As much as I love to see Ex-Cowboys
succeed, I don't see it happening for Quincy in week
10. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Detroit(+3)
@ Jacksonville - Byron Leftwhich is out with an injury.
He leaves his Jaguar team in the hands of David Gerrard.
Truly, the games outcome lies at the feet of Fred
Taylor. Detroit will keep all of their attention on
Fred. Gerrard isn't the passing threat Byron is by
any means. Joey Harrington will do his best to find
Roy Williams against the average secondary in Jacksonville.
The Jaguar D-Line will shutdown the Lion's pathetic
rushing attack, but will struggle against Harrington.
For the first time since week three last year, Byron
Leftwhich will sit. This doesn't bode well for a Jaguar
team that finds themselves smack dab in the middle
of a tough playoff race.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Kansas
City (-5) @ New Orleans - I'll take the Chiefs
regardless of the spread, with or without their holy
man. Priest is doubtful, so let's assume he doesn't
play. The Saints continue to be a disappointment,
no matter who plays for them. They have a stud running
back in Deuce McAllister, but he has only stumbled
to 100 yards in one game this year. (102 yards vs
Bucs week 5) He is only averaging a Ron Daynish 3.5
yards per carry, with a long run of, brace yourself…
16 yards! Aaron Brooks continues to hold the ball
too long and continually make poor decisions. Donte
Stallworth hasn't shown near the promise of his rookie
campaign, and the defense is still horrible. Kansas
City may be without the leagues most feared offensive
player, but Derrick Blaylock has shown he can get
the job done (see Atlanta game log two weeks ago).
Not t hat it matters. The Saints couldn't stop Drew
Bledsoe in an old school Nebraskan option attack.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Seattle
(even) @ St. Louis - Seattle is the better team.
They will come to play in Saint Louis, which will
hopefully be a good sign for Seahawk fans. The Rams
are much better at home, but will stumble this week
against Seattle. The Rams are in the perfect image
of Dr. Jekyl and Miss Hyde. One week they beat the
Seahawks in Seattle, and the next week they get kicked
around by the powerful Dolphins. The Miami Dolphins!
They are never exciting to bet for, often leaving
you wondering what the hell happened. Take Seattle
here, Shaun Alexander will continue his superb season,
rushing all over an average St. Louis Defense. Hasselbeck
will step up as well. Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00
ET
Cincinnati(+3)
@ Washington - Portis should shellac the Bengals rush
defense, but Brunell and the Skin's horrendous passing
game will end Washington's chances in a hurry. Since
Gibbs came in, the Redskins have been overrated every
week. Each time I see the Redskins spread, I am stunned.
Maybe, I miss all the good things the Redskins do,
but they seem just as bad as their record, if not
worse. The Bengals have looked better of late, feeding
the ball to Rudi Johnson and letting Carson Palmer
catch defenses of guard with the long ball. If they
do that against the Skins, they will win outright.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET
Minnesota
@ Green Bay(-4) - Green Bay always has a hell
of a time stopping Randy Moss. Ask any Packer Die
Hard, and they will tell you how much they hate number
84. Unfortunately for the Vikings, Randy has been
ruled out for this Sunday's game. Brett Favre should
feast on the Mossless Vikings by leading his Packers
to an old fashioned dominate performance in Lambeu.
Daunte Culpepper has had a tough time without his
partner in crime. Expect more of the same against
an average but maturing Packer secondary. Ahman Green
will get the ball plenty, which is a good sign for
Packer fans, and me. I'm taking Green Bay. Game
Date: 11/14/04 16:15 ET
Buffalo(+8)@
New England - 8 points is to many for a game that
will match two of the top defenses in the league.
The Patriots get more credit, because their team is
flat out better. But don't ignore Buffalo. Their young
D has been up to the challenge this year, doing their
best to make up for their poor offense. New England
should win this game, but Buffalo will make it close.
It doesn't hurt that the Patriots often seem to play
to the level of their opponents. Buffalo running back
Willis McGahee has rushed for at least a C-note in
every game he has started. Game Date: 11/14/04
20:35 ET
Chicago
@ Tennessee(even) - Yikes. I've got to take,
Chica... nope can't do it! Krenzel can't win three
straight, it's just not possible. But can I take the
Titans lead by William Volek? Okay, I guess I have
to make sacrifices. I don't want to even hear about
this game come Sunday. But if I have to pick, I'll
take Chris Brown's team. Brown has rushed for over
100 yards in 5 games this year. (145+ in 3) Brown
is averaging an eyelash below 5 yards a carry, doing
his best work against poor run defenses... like The
Bears. I can only hope this game marks the return
of Steve McNair, but it's not looking so good. Take
the Titans at home in a game you pray is not carried
in your area!
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Houston(+9)
@ Indianapolis - Two good offenses, one bad defense.
Indianapolis will have a grand spread to dig out of.
Although Houston looked pretty bad against the real
Denver Broncos last week, I think they have a good
chance to win against the Colts. Indianapolis hasn't
played like a 9-point favorite in the last 5 weeks.
Last week, Peyton threw 5 touchdowns, Edgerrin James
rushed for over 120 yards, and The Colts still barely
snuck by a struggling Vikings squad. David Carr will
find holes the size of Texas against a terrible Colt
Defense. Carr also has the option to just hand the
ball to his running back Davis. Either way, the Texans
have a decent defense to match their good offense,
making them my upset pick of the week.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Pittsburgh(-3.5)
@ Cleveland - Wouldn't it be too perfect if the Steelers,
after ruining two perfect seasons, lost to the Browns?
It could happen. But I won't pick it. Steeler D is
too good to bet against, and the Browns? They are
up and down with the best of them. When it comes down
to it, I just think the Steelers are flat out better
than either the Patriots or the Eagles. Everyone can
say what they want about flukes, and David vs. Goliath
and all that business. But Pitt has a very good defense
and a rushing attack that is second to none. I'll
take Big Ben to continue his phenomenal rookie season,
leading his team, and beating the Browns in Cleveland.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Tampa
Bay @ Atlanta(-3.5) - Atlanta should have no
problem. The Bucs won't be able to run this week against
the stout run defense in Atlanta. They won't be able
to throw either. In fact, they won't be able to do
any of the things they did against the Chiefs D last
week. Mike Vick, who looked real good a week ago,
looks to continue his growth in the West Coast Offense.
With two weeks to prepare, the Falcons are my hands
down favorite against the Bucs.
Game Date: 11/14/04 13:00 ET
Carolina(even)
@ San Francisco - Carolina. They're bound to win one
sooner or later, so why not against the Niners, who
should not win one ever again. Kevan Barlow could
be the biggest disappointment this year for fantasy
buffs. I don't blame him; he's got defenses breathing
down his throat every snap. With Tim Rattay and Ken
Dorsey running the show, he's been hard pressed to
find any room to roam. Carolina is bad, but they still
have guys who remember how to win, giving them a big
advantage in San Francisco.
Game Date: 11/14/04 16:05 ET
NY
Giants(-2) @ Arizona - The Giants should snap
out of their slump a week after a loss to Chicago.
Arizona hasn't been horrible, but the Giants have
a solid playoff chance, something the Cardinals threw
out the window when Anquan Boldin went down in the
preseason. Tiki Barbar has been amazing, holding on
to the ball, and sprinting to daylight at every opportunity.
He should continue his great season with a couple
touchdowns in Arizona. (I'm secretly wishing for Emmitt
Smith to rush for 300 yards in this one. Couldn't
Dallas use him right now! Ha Ha) Game Date: 11/14/04
16:15 ET
Philadelphia(-6.5)
@ Dallas - The Eagles should trounce a Dallas team
that is finally playing down to it's talent level.
(3-5) The Eagles looked like a skeleton of their dominating
selves last week against The Steelers. They will get
back to their roots against a rueful Dallas Defense,
and a generous Offense. On Monday Night Football,
I can see a vision... Dallas looks terrible again;
I have a smile that stretches as far as that stupid
gap in The Cowboy's roof. Bill Parcels is caught crying
on the sidelines... with Jerry Jones giving him a
hug... But in the end, the Cowboys draft pick just
gets better and better. Hopefully they pick a lemon
or two. Game Date: 11/15/04 21:05 ET
WAGERING
SMART MAKES WATCHING NFL GAMES MORE FUN
Good
Luck with your NFL Football Wagering!
Lucky Lester
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