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Hello
and welcome. Football season is upon us. Hooray pig
skin! Hooray beer! Hooray Sundays sacked on the sofa!
This is Lucky Lester storming back from a .500 record
a year ago, relaxed and ready for a sophomore performance
that will have us rolling in the money. Last year,
week one was my best single week record, and this
year should be no different. If you weren't here for
the 2004-'05 season, this is how it works. Week in
and week out I'll make my picks. I'll give reasons,
both personal and otherwise, that support my decision
on each game. I'll keep a log of what happened each
week, and you can always check out my follow up articles
to see how I did. Are you ready for some big hits?
Well, get ready for that as well as some Lambeau leaps,
bulldogs dressed in dresses, and home team heroics?
Once again the odds-makers have stumbled out of the
box, and I'm standing to make a pretty penny off of
their mistakes.
Oakland
(+7.5) @ New England - This is Randy Moss' big
day. The Black and Silver has been calling him since
he was rocking a bong in the dressing room on draft
day. That was the day Al Davis put a little notch
in his little black book. The only thing holding this
relationship back was some run-ins with the local
law enforcement, a premature evacuation from a game,
and too much running of the mouth. Thanks Randy, Al's
dream has come true. Fortunately for Mr. Davis, Moss
hasn't only brought his off the field antics to the
Raiders, but comes accompanied by the greatest receiving
ability the NFL has. Oakland has a buzz about them;
you could see it during the preseason. Kerry Collins
finally has someone he can't overthrow, which should
dwindle his interception numbers. Lamont Jordan should
bring a steady rushing attack to a team that didn't
produce a thousand yard back last year. And don't
count out the defense. It wasn't too long ago that
Charles Woodson was one of the best corners in the
league. If he can return to form, and the 600+ pound
duo of Ted Washington and Warren Sapp can perform
up to their standards, this team could be scary. As
for the defending champs, they should be up to their
same old tricks. They'll have to be to have a chance
in a tough AFC. They've lost a lot of the coaching
staff genius that helped them win the last two Super
Bowls. They've also lost Teddy Bruschi. Ty Law has
joined the Jets, and I don't think they can do it
again. Tom Brady's a great quarterback and Corey Dillon
was everything the Pats needed in his first year with
the team, but is that enough? Their Heart and Soul,
Ted, is out for the year, and I think it will bring
them down. Take Oakland to get closer than a touchdown,
making them winners in my mind, and more importantly
the bookie's. Game Date: 09/08/05 21:00 ET
Denver
(-5) @ Miami - There is no reason the Bronco's
shouldn't be favored by a couple of touchdowns against
a team that doesn't own a decent college starter.
Okay, Gus Ferotte was pretty good, but AJ Feely, he
didn't even play for the Oregon Ducks. As if that
wasn't enough, the perennially tough as nails defense
was torn apart and put up for sale to any bidder.
In fact, most high priced stars, like Patrick Surtain,
were just cut. That makes for a tough year for the
Nick Saban led Dolphins. If the defense can't keep
them in games, there is no way the Dolphins stumble
on a handful of wins, let alone a win against a solid
team from Denver. Ronnie Brown might find room against
an average run defense, but I can't see enough from
the passing game to keep the Fins within a touchdown.
The only question from this game, who will be the
"real", featured back in Denver? Who will
add his name to the 1000-yard back club? Tatum Bell?
Or will it be an old name, Mike Anderson? This is
as easy as it gets. Pick the Broncos in what has the
makings of an old fashion blow out, Firestone-style.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Cincinnati
(-3.5) @ Cleveland - The Browns aren't worth a
bet until Trent Dilfer proves he can still win football
games as the head signal caller. The Browns aren't
without weapons though. Braylon Edwards has shown
glimpses of his future stardom, and Reuben Droughns
has proven he can pile up the yardage. Defense is
where the Browns will struggle. They lost their best
corner to the Ravens, and they have a completely new
coaching staff. Dilfer has never proven he's a winner
without a dominant defense behind him. Things won't
change against the steadily improving Bengals. I'm
sure everyone's heard it a thousand times this preseason,
but I'm pretty confident this will be the year Carson
Palmer makes his bid for a Pro Bowl. He has one of
the best young receivers in the game as his go to
guy, Chad Johnson. Rudi Johnson is as steady as they
come, and Marvin Lewis has worked wonders with an
average defense to get them into the overall top ten
a year ago. This year will be even better for young
Bengals. Cinci is a play or two away from the playoffs.
Cleveland is a win or two away from the number one
pick in next years draft. This one, like the Bronco
game, is a no-brainer. Take the Bengals on the road
in a quick stomping of Romeo's first game as a head
coach. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Houston
@ Buffalo (-5.5) - The Buffalo Bills are a
popular pick to win their way into the playoffs this
year. If you haven't heard, this is why. Drew Bledsoe
was released, and JP Losman will take over as the
leader of a team that desperately needed to drop the
fat 7th grader who'd been taking poorly timed sacks
and throwing 4th quarter interceptions for the last
year and a half. Losman may be young and immature
compared to Drew, but he could cartwheel down the
field faster than Bledsoe could sprint. That's not
saying JP has the form of a gymnast either. What You
Talking 'Bout Willis McGahee will finally be fully
recovered from his knee injury that kept him out of
football his rookie season. Last year was just a glimpse
of what was to come from the former Hurricane, this
year should make us awe. Buffalo has the best defense
in football. After a preseason scrimmage, Brett Favre
said he hopes they don't play them during the season.
Houston was hoping the same thing. SOL. Houston should
be a good team this year. David Carr has looked poor
throughout the preseason, making people question if
he'll ever have the breakout year everyone has expected.
Dominick Davis is one of the best young backs in the
league, when he's healthy. But he's been a slow starter
since he broke into the league. Look for Houston to
stumble out of the box, allowing the Buffalo defense
to make big plays early. The Texans will fall down
early, never to resurface with the lead.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Tennessee
@ Pittsburgh (-7) - The Steelers might be a
bit overrated a year after their 15-1 regular season
record. But, they're still a good team. 15-1? No.
Opening dominance against the Titans. Indeed. Roethlisburger
will get plenty of chances to find wide open receivers
against a team that lost both of their starting receivers
to "rebuilding-disease". Steve McNair is
back and supposedly better than ever, though he's
lost his favorite receiver and a chunk of why the
Titans were so good the last few years. Derrick Mason
has a new home in Baltimore, and McNair's never had
a good on-field relationship with talented wideout
Drew Bennett. I fully expect the Steeler offensive
attack to struggle without Jerome Bettis and Duce
Staley, but Willie Parker will find holes in a suspect
defensive line, and Hines Ward will show why he deserves
the new contract he held-out for. Big Ben will calm
down at the end of the first half and the Steelers
will pull away from the Titans. A close first half
will end closer to a blowout than anything else. Steelers
win big; the Titans get one game closer to the end
of the season. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Chicago
@ Washington (-5.5) - In a real crowd-pleasing
move, the NFL brass has already put together the game
of the year. The Super Bowl hopeful Bears and the
strong and consistent Redskins meet in what could
be a real post season match-up. Yah right! This is
anything but a top-notch contest, but at least Tag's
snuck these two teams into the same game. Good work.
The Bears' season drooled down the drain when Rex
Grossman had an early exit, again. First year pro,
Kyle Orton, will have the reigns in what promises
to be everything but promising. Mushin Muhammad is
still a touchdown threat anywhere in the red-zone,
and the tandem of Thomas Jones and rookie rusher Cedric
Benson should be formidable. Getting to the red-zone,
or even the next first down marker, is going to be
the challenge. The Bears have a solid defense, but
not when they've been on the field for 75% of the
game, and they will be. They better be in good shape.
Washington has a tough defense that lost a little
punch with the departure of Fred Smoot. Shawn Springs'
ability to stay healthy, and LaVar Arrington's come
back from a flurry of injuries will make the difference
between a top flight and average defense for the Skins.
Patrick Ramsey, who's looked "ehhhh" this
preseason, and for his entire career for that matter,
will make another attempt at leading the Redskins
to the playoffs. Clinton Portis should be much improved
from his worst year ever. The trade of Larverneus
Coles for Santana Moss won't pay dividends, but that
won't keep Joe Gibbs from trouncing the overmatched
Bears and starting the season with a much-needed win.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New
Orleans @ Carolina (-7) - The Saints still
have the talented group of youngsters they've always
had. Well I guess they're middle-agers now. Either
way, everyone and their brother knows Jim Haslet has
himself a set of playmakers on both sides of the ball.
Will the signing of Dwight Smith, an ex-Buc, give
the Saints what the need to get to the next level?
Maybe. Will it help them beat Carolina in Carolina?
Not today Junior. The Panthers are as good as they've
been, even with Pro Bowler Mushin Muhammad in a Bears
uniform. Steve Smith is back, and opposed to what
he says, he's as good and fast as ever. Steven Davis
is back in the backfield with Deshaun Foster, and
they still have that D. Carolina will be swinging
for the fences this year. Julius Peppers might be
the biggest talent in all of football, and Kris Jenkins,
Mike Rucker, ex-Seahawk Ken Lucas, and the rest of
the Panther D will keep opposing teams on lockdown
all year long. Aaron Brooks and all his inconsitency
won't be an exception. Look for Brooks to get hit
often on Sunday. The Saints defense looked dismal
against the run all preseason, and now they have to
play the pound it in your face Panthers on opening
day. Talented Saints running back Deuce McAllister
will find some yardage early, but it won't be enough
to keep the Panthers from taking the game by two touchdowns.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Tampa
Bay @ Minnesota (-6) - The Vikings are better
since the departure of Randy Moss. As are the Raiders,
but that's another story. The Vikings can only worry
about the Vikings, and aside from a Whizzenator, the
headlines about the mishaps and screw-ups of Viking
star players has been nil since Moss's departure.
One point for Minnesota. Daunte Culpepper is still
the talented one-man attack he's always been, and
always was, even when Moss was out with injuries for
6 games last year. All Daunte needed was a defense
to hold their end of the bargain. With the departure
of Randy Moss, the Vikings had enough room on payroll
to get the players they needed to level off that side
of the ball. As for the offense, Daunte still has
big play options with Nate Burleson, Michael Bennett,
and rookie blazer Troy Williamson. I mean "speed"
blazer, not "Randy Moss during the off season"
blazer. Plus, the Vikings always start out 5-0. Tampa
Bay finally has the fixings for a rushing attack with
rookie star Carnell Williams manning the backfield.
Brian Griese has shown that he can be a decent starting
quarterback, but can he lead the Buc's to a winning
season and a playoff picture? Only time will tell.
Tampa's defense has always been stout, and this year
will be no different. Some key loses have brought
them down from their pedestal, but top 10 won't be
a stretch. My opening day diagnosis is this; the Vikings
will use their offensive fire power to pull ahead
early. Some big plays from Carnell Williams will have
the Buc's fighting back early in the second half,
but Culpepper will keep the Tampa Bay comeback-excitement
to rest with a vintage-Culpepper bomb to rookie wideout
Troy Williamson. The new and improved Viking D will
step-up and make a big play down the stretch, keeping
the Vikings up 10 as time expires. Take the Vikes
in an exciting game in Minnesota.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Seattle
@ Jacksonville (-3) - Seattle made some good
moves in the off-season, keeping their big three;
Shaun Alexander, Matt Hasslebeck, and Walter Jones.
Koren Robinson and the fiasco that was his career
in Seattle is now over, and the Seahawk brass can
go to sleep at night knowing their star receiver won't
be in jail with a DUI in the morning. Unfortunately
for the Seahawks there is a downside to the absence
of Koren Robinson. Somebody else has to start opposite
Jackson. That someone will be Bobby Engram and a plethora
of different names and faces. If someone or a couple
of them step up, watch out for the Seahawk offensive
attack. As for now, I have to bet the Seattle offense
continues to struggle, and the Jacksonville defense,
which is very underrated, will take advantage of Seattle
shortcomings. Byron Leftwich is going into his third
year. He should be better than ever. Fred Taylor looked
healthy in his single preseason performance, which
means good things for the Jags and their fans. Reggie
Williams has looked like the guy the Jags drafted,
instead of the imposter that showed up last year.
This is great for Leftwich, who should have Jimmy
Smith, Williams, Matt Jones, and Taylor to get the
pig to. The Jag's defensive line got some much needed
help when they signed Reggie Hayward in the off season.
The Jaguars are on their way to the playoffs. They'll
start with a tough game at home against a good Seahawk
team, but they should come out on top. Three points
is nothing at home, and the Jags look to be the better
team.
Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
New
York Jets (+3) @ Kansas City - The Jets and the
Chiefs. What a game. This is my pick for game of the
week. Philly-Atlanta should be grand, and Colts-Ravens
will be fun, but no game excites me more than Priest
Holmes running his legs at one of the most improved
teams in the league. This Jets defense just got better
and better last year, and this year will be no different.
Ty Law is now a Jet, and his leadership and shutdown
ability on the corner will give the Jets a huge lift.
Trent Green lost his number one receiver, Jonnie Morton.
But Eddie Kennison will flash his ability as the first
receiver option in Kansas City. But really, everyone
knows Tony Gonzalez is Trents real number one, and
he's wearing red and white. Holmes has one of the
most exciting backups in football, Larry Johnson.
He'll get his chances to make things happen. Will
all the new defensive additions be enough to get the
Chiefs to the Super Bowl? Kendrell Bell, Patrick Surtain,
Sammy Knight, and rookie linebacker Derrick Johnson
have a big task ahead of them, because God knows the
Kansas City defense was as bad as any team in the
NFL. Both teams will flash their fury, awing the masses,
and reminding us why we all love football. In the
end one of these great teams has to lose. The Jets
are too steady on both sides of the ball, and the
Chiefs, who've yet to gel into the cohesive defensive
unit that they'll become will fall just short on opening
day. Chad Pennington will be happy to have his old
pal, Coles, back on the field. Curtis Martin, future
hall-of-famer Curtis Martin, will have one of his
classic opening days. Coach Edwards will be all smiles
after a powerful performance against the playoff bound
Chiefs. His Jets will escape Kansas City with a road
victory. Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
Arizona
(+2.5) @ New York Giants - The Cardinals are getting
plenty of hype this off-season. I don't know if it's
Dennis Green, a great draft, or the abundance of talent
the Cardinals have all over the field, but I like
Arizona to do big things all year on their way to
the playoffs. Weird. I never thought I'd be saying
that. I don't think Kurt Warner will look like the
MVP he was in St. Louis, but I do think he'll look
rejuvenated with the talent he has around him. JJ
Arrington has had a tough preseason, but he'll come
around, and in the meantime, the Cards still have
Marcel Shipp and others to contribute. The Giants
might be starting Tim Hasselbeck. If that happens
to be a truth by the time you read this, stop reading
now and make a bet on the Cardinals… If Eli Manning
is still the starter, well, do the same thing. Manning
isn't ready to lead these Giants to the playoffs,
or an opening day win against the much-improved Cardinals.
Tiki Barbar is one of the most underrated backs in
the league, but who knows if and or when his "fumblitis"
will return. Week 1? Plaxico Burress was a number
2 receiver in Pittsburgh. He's being asked to be Eli's
go-to-guy. Will he fold under the pressure? Or will
he step up to his potential? The Giants defense gets
Michael Strahan back, but he won't be enough to keep
the Giants on top in New York. Arizona has too many
weapons in their arsenal, and Kurt Warner is too excited
to snap the towel on the team that sat him down last
year when the playoffs weren't so far away. Eli's
first year as a full time starter will begin with
a loss at home, and an entire week of "How does
it feel to get beat by Kurt?" questions. Good
luck Eli! Game Date: 09/11/05 13:00 ET
St.
Louis (-6) @ San Francisco - This is the easiest
game of the week. I plan to make all my money right
here. The Rams will slaughter the 49ers. Do I think
the Rams are that good? Not at all, in fact, I think
they'll be lucky to be 9-7 this year. But I'll tell
you one thing I'm sure of; two of those wins will
come from games against San Francisco. Tim Rattay
will be starting for the 49ers, which has never seemed
to workout for the club. Things won't change. Steven
Jackson is too good for the Niner defense to stop,
hell, so is Marshal Faulk, or maybe even Marsha Brady?
This game will be good for a few good highlights though,
so it might be worth a check-in from time to time.
"Bulger deep to Holt," "Bulger long
to Bruce," "Bulger with a deep interception,"
"Steven Jackson 60 yards down the right side."
Something along those lines. Notice, there is no 49er
scoring involved in those highlights. Don't be amazed
if that actually happens. Rams huge, think 35-3. Game
Date: 09/11/05 14:15 ET
Green
Bay @ Detroit (-3) - I never thought I'd see
the day Detroit was favored against Green Bay. Now
I can't believe the Lions are only favored by 3 in
Detroit. Everyone knows the Lions play good ball at
home, and everyone also knows that you can't have
a good team with a terrible defense and a shoddy offensive
line. The Pack has both. The Pack also has Brett Favre.
This is both good and bad. He's going to throw touchdowns…
and interceptions. This year could be the year Brett
ends up on the south end of .500. What a way to go
out. Ahman Green has looked miserable rushing behind
the makeshift line in 'Sconsin. Brett has had both
good and bad games in the preseason, but who cares
right, that was preseason. Detroit has been happy
with Joey Harrington's performance this preseason,
and they better be, because Jeff Garcia is out for
the year with a broken chicken leg. So much for a
quarterback controversy. Harrington will actually
have to try to do poorly to keep the Lions out of
games. All over the field Detroit has playmakers.
Jumpballs might be one of the Lion's biggest weapons.
Mike Williams, Roy Williams, Charlie Rogers, Kevin
Jones… my God, just throw the damn ball down
field, see what happens. Those 4 guys would kill in
a 4x100 relay. They'll win this game, too. Take the
Lions in a high scoring event. Game Date: 09/11/05
14:15 ET
Dallas
@ San Diego (-4.5) - San Diego is without their
biggest receiving threat, tight end Antonio Gates.
He's suspended for the first game because of his little
holdout. That was a good move. Idiots. Anyway, even
without Gates, the Chargers still have the upper hand.
Ladainian Tomlinson is the best the NFL has to offer,
and Drew Brees hasn't seemed to have lost the magic
he pulled out of his helmet a year ago. Keenan McCardell
has had an entire off season to learn the Charger
offense, which should add to his effectiveness. Reche
Caldwell is back after an injury cost him most of
his third year. He was in the process of breaking
out before he went out broken. Look for him to be
a bigger part of the offensive attack in San Diego
this year. Even with the good draft, and big off-season,
I don't think the Dallas Cowboys will come out victorious
in this one. Drew Bledsoe has gotten mixed reviews
during the preseason. Figure that, Drew Bledsoe, inconsistent.
Wow! Dallas went out and bought offensive line help,
which should add to Drew effectiveness. Unfortunately,
they didn't go out and get Drew some legs or a brain.
Drew will still hold the ball too long and get sacked
because he's about as mobile as an upside down turtle.
And he'll definitely still throw into double coverage…
interception! I can't wait to see the blank stare
on Parcells face the first time Drew sends a beautiful
spiral to Quentin Jammer (Charger cornerback). The
Chargers defense was young last year. Another year
under their belt has only made them better. Look for
Drew Brees and company to light up the overrated Dallas
defense, eliciting laughter from me, and a look of
horror on Bill's face as his Cowboys fall short in
the season opener.
Game Date: 09/11/05 14:15 ET
Indianapolis
@ Baltimore (+3) - This is one of the better
games of the day. Will the Colts number one ranked
secondary be able to stop the talented signal caller,
Kyle Boller? What can I say? That lines a load of
BS. The Colts secondary, right near the bottom of
the league, is depleted, and injury ridden. Kyle Boller
is… bad. But he has too many weapons and coaching
specialists to fail. And if anyone can keep Peyton
Manning and the Colts from scoring a ton of points,
it has to be Ray Lewis and his group of trusty steeds.
Right? If Jamal Lewis can step in and play like he
can, the Ravens will upset the Super Bowl favored
Colts in Baltimore. Even Kyle Boller should be able
to light up the Colts secondary. Baltimore might have
the best defensive players one team has ever had.
Samarri Rolle is great, in fact, every single one
of their defensive backs is fantastic. Their fourth
guy is Neon Deion. How much better can it get? Look
for the Ravens to take the Colts in this opener. It
isn't the popular pick, but it's the right one. Manning
will be limited to a couple touchdown passes, and
one too many interceptions. Boller will look good,
which might be the last time all year, leading his
team to an opening day victory. Or should I say riding
their defense to victory? Either way, Ravens win.
Game Date: 09/11/05 20:30 ET
Philadelphia
(-1) @ Atlanta - This is a great Monday night
opener. Philly has been picked by just about everyone
to repeat as NFC Champions, and I'm not one to argue.
Their defense is back in full force. Donovan McNabb
and TO looked to be on the same page in their lone
preseason game. Brian Westbrook is very underrated.
He's a great speedy back who can catch passes and
do just about everything you can ask from a guy. Donovan
McNabb hasn't gotten nearly enough credit for what
he's become in such a short time. He's Philly's MVP,
bar none. Philly's defense took a big hit when Corey
Simon was released last week, but they don't seem
to be worried about it, so you shouldn't either. Mike
Vick has played very little snaps in the preseason,
but he looked good. He has improved as a pocket passer,
which unfortunately, the Falcons want him to be. The
Eagles defense is too good to let Vick pick them apart
from the pocket. Look for more interceptions than
touchdowns from Vick. Michael Jenkins and Roddy White
as starting receivers? I don't know if I'm as excited
as Mike sounds in interviews. Warrick Dunn and TJ
Duckett will help keep the Falcons on the top of team
rushing, and both should find a little room against
an average run stuffing D. But that won't be enough.
This should be a good game featuring two playoff bound
ball clubs, but the Eagles will show their NFC superiority
late, getting the win by a touchdown or two. Take
the Eagles, because that's what I'd do. Game
Date: 09/12/04 21:00 ET
Well
folks there you have it, my picks for week one. Make
sure you come back to check out Lucky Lester's picks
for week two of what should turn out to be an excellent
football season.
WAGERING
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